Gasol, Lakers edge Mavericks
Basketball Betting Lines
02/23/2012 - Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pau Gasol had 24 points and nine rebounds on Wednesday night, as the Lakers escaped with a 96-91 win over the Mavericks.
With the narrow victory, the Lakers improved to 2-0 this season against Dallas, the team which swept them out of last year's Western Conference semifinals.
The Mavericks trailed 93-86 with a minute to play and pulled within two, 93-91, behind six straight missed free throws from the Lakers, a three- pointer from Jason Terry and a Dirk Nowitzki jumper.
The sixth missed free throw came from Gasol with 19 seconds left, but Matt Barnes grabbed the offensive rebound and hit a pair from the line to make it 95-91.
Derek Fisher then made 1-of-2 foul shots between a pair of Terry missed three-pointers to seal the Lakers' fifth win in six games. They face Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City on Thursday.
Nowitzki scored 25 points to pace the Mavericks, who had won seven of eight coming in. Vince Carter added 20 points and Terry had 16. Former Laker Lamar Odom did not play due to family reasons.
"This was a nail biter tonight," said Mavericks forward Shawn Marion. "I think we had our chances to gain a lead and keep it, but we had a few mishaps there in the fourth. They still gave us a chance there, but we weren't able to pull it out."
Fisher, who made the game-winning three-pointer in the teams' previous meeting this season, played a pivotal role in a 9-0 Lakers run which turned a two- point deficit into an 89-82 fourth-quarter lead.
After two free throws apiece from Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum, Fisher knocked down a three-pointer, then made a running floater in the paint to mark the largest advantage of the second half for either team.
A baseline jumper from Terry and a 16-footer from Nowitzki made it 89-86 but Bryant answered with successful lob passes on each of the Lakers' next two touches.
The first went to Gasol, who finished with a second effort and the second saw Bynum finish with a dunk for a 93-86 lead with 1:05 to play.
"I thought our guys did a nice job of executing down the stretch," said Lakers coach Mike Brown. "I feel like offensively we're getting a little better, but right now our end of game execution isn't quite where I want."
Gasol got off to a hot start scoring 12 first-quarter points en route to a 25-21 advantage.
The margin increased to 14 midway through the second, as Gasol's dunk made it 42-28. The Mavericks, though, closed the quarter on a 20-6 run to tie it 48.
Nowitzki scored Dallas' final six points before the break, making a pair of foul shots, a shot step-back jumper and a game-tying 22-footer with seven seconds to play.
Neither team led by more than four points in the third and it was knotted at 72 entering the fourth.
Game Notes
Bynum finished with 19 points and 14 rebounds while Bryant and Fisher both had 15...The teams previously met on January 16. Fisher knocked down a three- pointer with 3.1 seconds remaining, lifting the Lakers to a 73-70 victory over the Mavericks in that one...Los Angeles is now 6-11 on the road this season while Dallas fell to 14-3 as the host.
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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